In 2011, the special steel market and the general steel market trend were basically the same. In the first half of the year, it was still sunny and sunny, but in the second half of the year, the market turned sharply, and the market was sluggish, especially in September and October, the whole market was in ruin. The situation is very rapid, with the price falling at the same time, there is the demand for warm water, the original poor turnover has also plummeted, until the situation before the situation, a certain degree of improvement.

In the weak environment of the entire steel market, it is difficult for steel mills to effectively support the market. On the contrary, it is forced to continue to be lowered due to the continuous decline of the whole market. Taking the Xianggang policy as an example, the market is the fastest decline. The month is still insisting, the decline is only 50 yuan, but in October and November, because there is no sign of any rebound in the market, the steel mill policy can only helplessly, the monthly reduction is 230 yuan and 340 yuan, the largest adjustment in the year, until the beginning of December, the downward adjustment action finally ended, but this time has dropped 620 yuan than in August.

As the price of steel fell too fast, the ex-factory price of steel mills continued to decrease, and corporate profits fell across the board. According to the data, from January to November, the sales profit of member companies of China Steel Association fell to 2.55%, of which in October and November, steel After the company's profit and loss in the month, it only realized profits of 1.4 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan respectively, and the average sales revenue profits were 0.48% and 0.43% respectively. If the investment income is deducted, the steel company will have a net loss of 920 million yuan in November, and the company's loss has exceeded one third. The production of special steel enterprises is also in a state of semi-depletion. The largest carbon steel in the special steel products is almost the same as the price of round steel. The production enthusiasm of the steel mills has dropped significantly. Taking Egang as an example, the carbon production in September is still close to 1.5. Tens of tons, but in October and November production has been reduced by nearly 40%, the monthly output is only about 10,000 tons, production has slowed significantly, until December basically returned to normal levels.

Although the output of steel mills in the fourth quarter is not large, but the domestic economic growth slows down, the market is caught in a large-scale "money shortage" background, no matter dealers or users, are not willing to dump goods, local markets compete for low-cost dumping Reducing inventory and returning funds has become the first choice for everyone. Downstream, because of the difficulty in product sales, it can only reduce the purchase of raw materials, and the middlemen are not willing to stock up. In the end, the inventory can only be backlogged in the steel mills, forcing the steel mills to solve the increase in inventory by reducing production and overhaul or simply switching to Pugang. The difficulty of product sales. However, after entering December, favorable factors at the economic level increased, monetary policy was once again loosened, and market operations gradually restored to the former calm. However, due to the joint role of the terminal enterprises, middlemen and steel mills in the early stage, the inventory of each place has been reduced to a lower level, and some resources even appear to be in short supply, especially small-sized resources below 40mm, out of stock, lack of The goods became the most frequently mentioned words in the market. At this time, the steel mills once again occupied a favorable low position. For the agents and downstream enterprises to request additional orders, many steel mills performed tough, and the number exceeded exceeded. The author believes that this is the intention of the steel mill to tighten the supply and prepare for the price increase in the future.

On the whole, in the fourth quarter, the steel mill policy experienced a trend of two stages of downward adjustment and stabilization. By the end of the year, due to the relaxation of monetary policy, the stabilization of demand and other favorable factors, the steel mill policy has stabilized. The signs of pulling, such as Egang on the 5th of January, raised the carbon-bonded steel factory price of 30 yuan, although the magnitude is small, the meaning reflected in it is far-reaching. In addition, from the perspective of machinery manufacturing and automobiles in the major application industries of the special steel industry, although the growth rate of the two major industries in 2011 was lower than expected, considering the factors such as the stabilization of GDP growth in 2012 and the improvement of macroeconomic environment, The two major industries are expected to maintain steady growth in 2012. Among them, the China Automobile Industry Association predicts that the annual growth rate of automobile sales in 2012 will reach 8%. The China Machinery Industry Federation expects the machinery industry to increase production and sales by 18%-20%. This will provide favorable support for stabilizing the special steel market, stimulating the recovery of the industry, and will also strengthen the bottom line of the steel mills to formulate price policies. The large-scale increase in special steel enterprise policies after the holiday should be a high probability event.

The author believes that the post-holiday special steel market must have a rebound requirement. In addition to the previously mentioned reasons for the steady increase in steel mill policy and the steady increase in demand, the main reason for supporting the author's judgment is the low inventory situation of the market. Market inventories have experienced a decline of 11 weeks, until a slight increase before the Spring Festival, but the overall inventory is still maintained at the low level of the year, some of the resources in the market for supply slightly lower than demand will continue to exist, the market rebound after the holiday will be the trend of the times .